The legend of the Firebird Phoenix has been around for centuries.

There are more than a few cultural and mythological variations, but the basic idea is this: The Firebird Phoenix is a supernatural creature, living for many years. Once that time is over, it builds its own funeral pyre, and throws itself into the flames. As it dies, it is reborn anew, and rises from the ashes to live another many years. Alternatively, it lays an egg in the burning coals of the fire which hatches into a new Firebird Phoenix, and its life cycle repeats.

The Cycle Context

Getting the Big Picture

Every Situation has a context

  • The universe is interrelated as is the financial universe
  • There are relations in time between time periods and relations between assets within any particular time
  • Knowing the temporal relations and the asset relations are essential to understanding human activity

Cycles the Temporal Context

  • Long Cycles are the context for all other time frames
  • The turn of the 21stCentury is historically similar to the time of the renaissance
  • Many of the most significant long cycles are turning and impacting the world now
  • Although they take time to work out the changes can be seen everywhere
  • There are significant events now

Long Cycles

  • Wheeler and Foundation Super Cycles
  • The Kondratieff Wave
  • Kuznets Cycle 18-year cycle
  • Juglar Cycle 9-12 years
  • Patterns -Decennial and Election
  • Kitchin Cycle –40 month
  • Schumpeterian System
  • Spectral and Nominal Cycles

Long Cycles Price Series and Climate

Found by observation

  • 178-year cycle
  • 98-Year cycle
  • 59.5-year cycle
  • 29.97-year cycle
  • 18.3-year cycle
  • 10.83-year cycle

Found with Spectral Analysis

  • 170-year cycle
  • 100-Year cycle
  • 60-year cycle
  • 30-year cycle
  • 18-year cycle
  • 11-year cycle

Assets and Cycles

  • Assets exist in relation to each other in value and time
  • All economic cycles are related and thus all assets are related
  • Capital will flow to whatever asset and whatever place offers the best return
  • Tracking capital flows through cycles

The Asset Context

  • The value of assets is going through irrevocable changes
  • The changing world economic conditions is changing investment opportunities
  • The thirst of all human beings for economic freedom has been kindled and the fire will not be put out
  • It will take the world 30 years to catch up with demand

Asset Classes

  • Equities, domestic and international
  • Bonds and Fixed Income
  • Cash Equivalents
  • Precious metals
  • Energy –This is typically not an asset class but it is so important it is listed
  • Commodities, primarily growing commodities
  • Raw materials and Natural Resources
  • Fixed Assets such as real estate
  • Collectibles
  • Forex

Cycles in Major Assets

  • Gold and Precious Metals –15–year cycle
  • Real Estate –22-Year Cycle
  • Dollar-17 -18-year cycle
  • Stocks Decennial Pattern & 40–month cycle
  • Bonds 60-year and 12-Year cycle
  • Commodities and Energy 28-year cycle

Integrating Assets and Risk

  • The demand and cost of money drives asset class
  • Risk in one asset affects all assets
  • “When there is blood in the streets” in the words of the Rothschilds there is always opportunity

Intermarket Cycle Analysis

  • The Cyclic Context is based upon synchronies and sequences
  • Assets are synchronized
  • Asset turns are sequenced
  • Prices lead yields but it is the 60 year cycle in yields that it dominant
  • Capital and determines the asset class and forex shows the flow

Integrating the Asset Picturefrom a domestic perspective

  • US dollar, gold and energy
  • US dollar and Stock prices
  • US dollar and Yields
  • Commodities and Bonds
  • Stocks and Yields